Most economists expect the global economy to weaken in the coming year amid political and financial volatility, but a large majority of over 90 per cent are confident of moderate or strong growth in South Asia, notably India, a survey showed on Friday. At the same time, the outlook for China has dimmed following signs of deflationary pressures and fragility in the country's real estate market, the World Economic Forum's latest 'Chief Economists Outlook' report said. As the world grapples with political and financial volatility, almost six in 10 believe the global economic outlook will undermine progress towards meeting the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with 74 per cent saying geopolitical tensions will have the same effect.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) interest rate decision, West Asia conflict and trading activity of foreign investors are the key factors that will dictate investors' sentiment in the market this week, analysts said. Moreover, quarterly earnings from IT bellwether TCS, domestic macroeconomic data and movement in global oil benchmark Brent crude would also guide trends in the market. Worsening tensions in the Middle East and foreign fund outflows were the major culprits behind the equity markets sharp fall last week.
Donald Trump's Presidency of the United States will open new opportunities for India though certain sectors, especially pharma and IT, may face the heat if the incoming president decides to impose restrictions on imports and H1B visa regulations, experts said on Wednesday. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's friendly relationship with Trump will have a positive bearing on Indo-US relations but India may have to adapt its strategies to maintain cooperation in areas of mutual interest.
Retail investors have become a force to reckon with in the last 10 years with their ownership of Indian equities rising 800 basis points, or 8 per cent, to 23.4 per cent during this period, suggests a recent note from Morgan Stanley. This number, Morgan Stanley said, is set to rise in the next few years as Indian households are still underinvested in equities. India's demographics, policy framework, investor education and modest positive real rates, it said, will fuel the 'equity cult' in India.
'The biggest near-term risk to Indian equities is the outflow of investments to China as tactical trades by foreign investors.'
Amid rupee sliding below 64 to a dollar, global agency Standard & Poor's on Tuesday said it will maintain negative outlook for the country as currency depreciation is adversely impacting investor confidence.
The Adani group is in advanced talks with top sovereign funds based in West Asia to raise up to $2.6 billion for its airport expansion and green hydrogen projects. The group, which expects to close the ongoing financial year ending March with Rs 80,000 crore of Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation), has held a series of road shows in London, Dubai, and Singapore with potential investors, briefing them about their future growth plans. The group's flagship, Adani Enterprises, may dilute part of its stake in the airport-holding firm and/or the green hydrogen business to these funds, which are keen to invest in the Indian infrastructure sector, said a source close to the development.
Trump's sweeping tariffs and penalties on China-built ships have turned global shipping into the front line of economic war, observes Shyam G Menon.
Private banks' net profit grew 26.3 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 48,982 crore in the first quarter ended June 2024 (Q1FY25) owing to healthy growth in credit and other income. The gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) increased with the end of dispensation granted during the pandemic, according to the data compiled by BS Research Bureau for listed 18 private banks.
Moody's Investors Service on Monday said the bank capital will moderately fall in emerging Asia over the next two years, with India seeing larger capital decline without further infusion. In a report, Moody's said the uncertain trajectory of asset quality is one of the biggest threats for emerging market banks, as operating conditions remain challenging amid the current COVID pandemic.
Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs) with a lock-in period performed better than the ones that allow investors to withdraw capital at any time. Close-ended schemes had a median return of 5.62 per cent in December, according to data from industry tracker PMSBazaar. The median returns for open-ended schemes were 3.91 per cent
Global private equity (PE) firms are successfully offloading large equity stakes in domestic companies in the open market, taking advantage of buoyant conditions. Strong domestic liquidity support and an upward trending market have underpinned over a dozen PE exits worth $2.5 billion, data compiled by Business Standard shows. The figures exclude PE exits during maiden share sales and shares sold by strategic investors, such as SoftBank and Ant Group in new-age companies.
Indian equity markets have a limited upside potential in the near-term as they negotiate the ensuing cyclical slowdown, wrote analysts at Nomura in a recent coauthored report led by Saion Mukherjee, their managing director and head of equity research for India. He, however, believes that the foundations are in place for sustainable growth over the medium-to-long term, and hence suggests a 'buy on dips' strategy to equity investors. As an investment strategy, Nomura prefers domestic-oriented sectors and companies over exporters, and prefers stocks that provide valuation comfort. Industrials and banks are their overweight sectors, while IT services and consumer discretionary are their underweight sectors.
India has emerged as the brightest spot in the Asia Pacific region as reform has picked up pace in the country in recent months, a top credit rating agency has said.
'Avoid taking excessive credit risk via mutual funds such as high-yield fixed maturity plans and credit opportunity funds.'
Fund raising by Indian companies through the offshore debt market is expected to rise in 2015.
While India won't be immune to global spillovers, we need to create the macro preconditions for sustained growth. Policy agility, prudence, and resilience will be key, suggests Sonal Varma.
Signs of a strong pickup in hiring by companies are adding to the rosier outlook for Indian households.
Industry body Amfi to hold meeting to decide on road map.
Retail investors should not invest for bonus or dividend because in order to make money over the long term.
A new era of Indian equity market outperformance compared to China "appears to be dawning", according to Morgan Stanley. The firm has upgraded India to overweight in its Asia Pacific-excluding Japan (APxJ) list, making it their most preferred market not only in the region but also in the global emerging market (GEM) pack. India now holds the top position in this category, with an overweight of 75 basis points, a significant increase from nil previously.
Modi attended the 20th ASEAN-India Summit in Jakarta. Secretary-General of ASEAN Dr Kao Kim Hourn also attended the summit.
Taxation has played spoilsport despite double digit returns.
The weak April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1) results of the largest listed specialty chemical maker, SRF, and multiple global headwinds for the sector are expected to weigh on the prospects of Indian specialty chemical companies in 2023-24 (FY24). Stocks in the sector (down 7-18 per cent) have underperformed the benchmarks (up over 10 per cent) in the past three months, and given the multiple challenges, the trend is likely to continue. Kotak Institutional Equities expects a very weak quarter (Q1FY24) for the sector due to destocking, demand weakness across certain critical end-use industries, and price erosion amid intense competition from Chinese suppliers.
If a risk taker and young, NPS would suit her/him. Otherwise, s/he should go for EPF.
Only tactical investors lose money in a downturn due to their short investment horizon
The move to allow payments through digital wallets could give a fillip to distribution and reach for these investment vehicles, say experts.
Days after Moody's cut its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for financial year 2022-23 (FY23) after the official GDP print for the June quarter came in lower than expectations, the global ratings agency said it would maintain its long-term sovereign debt credit rating and outlook on Asia's third-largest economy. "The credit profile of India reflects key strengths, including its large and diversified economy with high growth potential, a relatively strong external position, and a stable domestic financing base for government debt," Moody's said on Tuesday. "We do not expect rising challenges to the global economy, including the impact of the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, higher inflation, and the tightening financial conditions on the back of policy tightening, to derail India's ongoing recovery from the pandemic in 2022 and 2023," it said.
'A subscriber will know exactly how much of his money is in debt and how much in equity.'
AirAsia founder Tony Fernandes began talks with bankers to take Asia's number one budget airline private after a plunge in its stock price put $200 million worth of loans borrowed against AirAsia's shares at risk.
Except for Westlife Foodworld (Westlife), a weak 2022-23 (FY23) January-March (fourth quarter, or Q4) quarter performance and a muted near-term outlook led to a downward revision of earnings estimates for quick-service restaurant (QSR) players. Brokerages have slashed estimates by as much as 10 per cent for 2023-24 (FY24) and 2024-25 (FY25). The downward revisions have weighed on the performance of listed players, who have underperformed the market with low single-digit returns over the past month.
When selecting investments, pay attention to potential return, risk and how easily you can exit it.
In these times of global uncertainty, be cautious in selecting the right market and fund.
Don't get carried away by the current rally; be picky and take a stock-specific approach.
From April 1, subscribers will be able to change investment option & asset allocation twice a year, instead of once. Use greater flexibility offered by pension scheme judiciously.
'But unlike Bond who killed an individual, Israel is killing a nation.'
In a memorable year for the equity market, Dalal Street investors added a whopping Rs 81.90 lakh crore to their wealth in 2023 as a raft of positive factors powered a stellar rally in stocks. Experts said India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals, political stability owing to the BJP's success in recent elections in three significant states, optimistic corporate earnings outlook, signals from the US Federal Reserve about three prospective rate cuts next year and heavy retail investors participation played a major role in fuelling the stock market rally in 2023. In the year 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent.
For longer tenure products, they offer higher returns compared to other instruments. But for shorter tenures, things are getting tighter for investors.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said India and China will account for half of the global economic growth in 2023, as the multilateral agency retained its growth forecast for Asia's third-largest economy for 2023-24 (FY24). "India remains a bright spot. Together with China, it will account for half of global growth this year, versus just a tenth for the US and euro area combined," the IMF said in its latest update to the biannual World Economic Outlook. Growth in India is set to decline from 6.8 per cent in 2022 (FY23) to 6.1 per cent in 2023 (FY24) before picking up to 6.8 per cent in 2024 (FY25), the global lender said while citing "resilient domestic demand despite external headwinds".
Market participants attribute the stability to the Reserve Bank of India's timely intervention in the foreign exchange market, both in terms of selling and buying dollars.
